UK shoppers still love a half-price toaster, but the brands smashing Q4 targets are the ones that know exactly when to nudge shoppers with the right offer at the right time.
With competition growing every year, peak season has become a chess match – and it’s being played one scroll at a time.
The high-stakes shopping window once rewarded whoever shouted loudest. Then 2024 happened. Inflation hogged the headlines, yet the UK retailers that leaned into commerce intelligence – real-time signals, SKU-level intent and dynamic creatives – closed the year firmly in the black.
Here, we look at what that can teach us about peak season 2025.
Peak season 2024, by the numbers
If last year proved anything, it’s that relevance beats eye-catching sale signage every time. Set against a backdrop of belt-tightening – a trend we saw throughout the year – the key metrics that UK retailers care about still moved in the right direction:
- Revenue rose 7% year on year.
- Conversion rates climbed 6%.
- Average order value jumped 9% compared to 2023.
- Luxury watches spiked 234% on Black Friday (even with no discounts).
Why the lift? Shoppers gravitated to well-timed cues that felt like handy tips, not a clearance frenzy. When the right product surfaces at the right second, price happily sits in the back seat.
There were fresh pockets of demand, too. Health and beauty, apparel and toys vaulted to the top of wish lists, giving marketers a clear mandate to pivot spend towards categories sparking early interest.
Gotta go fast
Consumers are making decisions more quickly than ever.
Shoppers jump between tabs, socials and review sites without taking a breath – and competing offers can pile up in the space of a single commute. That hyper-condensed journey forces brands to capture attention, reassure on value, then seal the deal – and all in one smooth motion.
Two particular data points underline the urgency here:
- The gap from first product view to Black Friday checkout fell to 13 days in 2024, down from 17.
- During that shorter stretch, shoppers squeezed in 1.5 times more brand comparisons.
So, as a marketer, what does this new path-to-purchase really mean?
- You now have less runway to nurture intent. If you miss the moment, another brand can bag that basket.
- Creative variation must now learn in hours, not weeks, because a ‘maybe’ today quickly becomes a ‘gone’ tomorrow.
- Full-funnel coverage is the new entry fee. Missing a single touchpoint can make a buyer bounce to a rival at double-quick speed.
Remember: momentum lives in micro-moments. If your data, bidding strategies and creatives aren’t wired to adapt in real time, you’re essentially driving with the handbrake on.
From planning to payday: A five-phase blueprint
Rome wasn’t built in a day, and winning peak season is no different.
In fact, it begins way before the first fairy light goes up. Here’s a quick five-phase blueprint to set you up for success:
1. Now to September: Lay the foundations
Lock budgets, set KPIs and launch prospecting while festival playlists still dominate the office speaker. Early campaigns seed high-intent pools you can reignite when Oxford Street flicks the lights to “festive”.
2. October: Calibrate
Real–time demand signals show which categories are bubbling – from health & beauty gift sets to novelty jumpers and the year’s must-have toy – so shift spend fast. Urgency cues such as ‘limited stock’ or ‘gift guide’ spark action without slicing margin.
3. Early November: Prime the peak
Sales may look sleepy at first, yet Cyber Six 2024 delivered an 11% revenue lift year on year. Pace budgets to keep your powder dry for the inevitable sofa-scroll surge.
4. Cyber Weekend: Engage the full-funnel engine
Across the Criteo network, UK conversion rates jumped 15% during Cyber Six, and brands pairing onsite sponsored products with offsite display enjoyed up to a 5x lift in conversions. Price-sensitive shoppers? Watches rocketed 361% with a modest 17% discount, yet even full-price SKUs still climbed 234% when the message met the moment.
5. Post-Cyber: Re-engage and retain
There’s still plenty of opportunity even after Cyber Six is over. Holiday travellers, for instance, converted at 17% – four points above the site average – when retargeted with replenishment SKUs and loyalty perks.
The commerce media opportunity
Commerce media brings together open web and retailer environments into one platform, so every pound can chase the strongest signal in real time. Criteo’s platform brings together SKU-level targeting, live audience insight, and creatives that update themselves across retailer sites, apps and the wider web.
But what does that look like day to day? We’re talking about an engine that can identify a lunchtime spike in searches for luxury candles, swaps your creative’s hero image to a winter-scented candle by 1pm, then nudges the same shopper with a sponsored product tile when they open their grocery app at 6pm. Built-in AI tests copy, rotates formats, and optimises for outcomes while your team focuses on strategy rather than spreadsheet gymnastics.
Ready to plan like it’s July?
The busiest fortnight of the retail calendar can't be conquered in a fortnight.
Instead, it's built month by month, insight by insight. Brands that treat July media reviews as the true start of peak season will roll into Q4 with warmed audiences, battle-tested creatives and budgets that bend (not break) under pressure.
Need a cheat sheet? Download Criteo’s Festive Season Planning Guide, packed with category benchmarks, creative ideas and media blueprints to turn real-time intent into measurable revenue. When December rolls around, you’ll be glad you started early.